“I got a feelin’… that tonight’s gonna be a good night.”
— I Got a Feeling, The Black Eyed Peas

As 2025 comes to a close, mortgage brokers have something we haven’t had consistently in years: multiple market trends finally moving in the same direction.

The year didn’t just end better than expected — it ended with momentum brokers can actually use.

 

A Healthier Setup for Mortgage Pricing

By year-end, mortgage bonds were trading at their strongest levels of 2025, and mortgage pricing reflected a calmer, more stable market environment. That combination matters because it supports:

• More predictable rate sheets
• Easier borrower conversations
• Fewer surprises mid-transaction

For brokers, stability is often more valuable than dramatic moves — and that’s exactly what the market delivered as the calendar turned.

 

Why the Spread Matters (and Why Brokers Should Care)

One of the most encouraging developments is what’s happening behind the scenes:
the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.

• Late 2023: spread widened to nearly 300 bps (high uncertainty, high risk premiums)
• End of 2025: spread narrowed to about 210 bps, the tightest in years

Broker takeaway:

This tells us mortgage pricing is becoming more efficient. Investors are demanding less extra compensation to hold mortgage-backed securities — a sign of reduced volatility and improved confidence.

That efficiency shows up directly in pricing consistency, which makes it easier for brokers to lock, quote, and close.

 

Buyers Are Quietly Re-Engaging

Housing data is already reflecting this improved backdrop.

November Pending Home Sales posted their strongest reading in nearly three years — a key signal for brokers, since pending sales typically lead closings by several weeks.

What this means for your pipeline:

• Buyers are responding to stability
• Activity is rebuilding before any major inventory surge
• Demand is forming under the surface, not disappearing

This is often when proactive brokers win — before the broader market headlines catch up.

 

The Bigger Picture for Brokers

Taken together, the trends are meaningful:

• Stronger mortgage bond performance
• Tighter spreads
• Improving housing indicators
• More stable pricing behavior

This isn’t a market driven by hype — it’s one resetting onto healthier footing.

For brokers, that means:

• Better conversations with cautious buyers
• More confidence re-engaging stalled files
• A stronger environment for creative solutions like DSCR, Bank Statement, and other Non-QM programs

As 2025 ends, the setup for mortgage and housing is far more constructive than it was at the start of the year.

 

Where Things Stand

30-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac, Dec 31):

• ~6.15%
• Slight improvement week-over-week
• Meaningfully better than year-end 2024

10-Year Treasury:

• 4.13%
• Flat week-over-week
• Down notably from a year ago

Broker takeaway:

Rates finished the year steady, not volatile — a solid foundation heading into January.

 

What Brokers Should Watch Early in 2026

The first full week of the new year brings important data that could shape early momentum:

Labor Market:

• ADP private payrolls
• JOLTS job openings
• Weekly jobless claims
• December Jobs Report

Housing & Economy:

• New and pending home sales
• ISM Manufacturing & Services
• Consumer Sentiment

Together, these reports will help determine whether the market builds on recent progress or pauses to digest gains.

 

Bottom Line for Mortgage Brokers

2025 didn’t just end — it finished strong.

The market is calmer, pricing is more efficient, and buyers are quietly stepping back in. That’s a powerful combination for brokers who stay proactive, communicate clearly, and leverage flexible lending solutions.

As we head into 2026, this is a market that rewards engagement, education, and execution — not waiting on the sidelines.