Interest rates hovered near the best levels of 2025 this week — and for mortgage brokers, the latest commentary from the Federal Reserve is giving the market a welcome boost of confidence.

Let’s break down what happened and how to use it to move deals forward.

“Then I look at you… and the world’s alright with me.”
— Lovely Day, Bill Withers

 

Fed Williams Sparks Optimism — Rate Cut Odds Surge

New York Fed President John Williams (a key FOMC voter) signaled that the Fed may cut rates again soon, saying policy remains “modestly restrictive” and there is “room for further adjustment.”

Markets responded immediately:

• Rate-cut odds for the December 10 meeting jumped from 39% → 70% → nearly 85%
• Long-term rates (including mortgage rates) improved and returned to yearly lows

Broker Takeaway:

This is a prime window to:

• Revisit stale pre-approvals
• Re-run DSCR and Non-QM scenarios
• Re-engage buyers who stepped out earlier this year
• Lock for clients who need certainty before December volatility

BUT:
Each of the last five Fed cuts (since Sept 2024) actually led to higher long-term rates afterward.
Translation: Don’t assume rates fall after the next cut — the best pricing may be happening before December 10.

 

Oil Drops to ~$57 — Why That Helps Brokers

Oil prices continue to fall due to soft global demand, rising supply, and optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine resolution.

Why brokers should care:

• Oil and 30-year mortgage rates often move together
• When oil drops, long-term rates typically drop, improving affordability
• With both oil and mortgage rates sitting near 2025 lows, buyers have a rare moment of rate relief

Broker Opportunity:

• Use this trend in client updates: “Energy markets are helping rates — if you paused earlier, let’s revisit your numbers.”
• Lower rates can bring marginal borrowers back into qualifying range
• Investors benefit: better DSCR math, stronger cash flow, renewed acquisition appetite

 

Rate Snapshot — Still Strong, Still Improving

30-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac)

• 6.23% (down from 6.26%)
• 0.58% lower than last year

10-Year Treasury

• 4.01% (down from 4.13%)
• Testing the crucial 4.00% support level

Why 4.00% is everything:

If the 10-year closes below 4.00% and stays there, that level flips from support to resistance — making it harder for yields (and mortgage rates) to rise again.

This is exactly the kind of setup that can lead to another round of rate improvement.

 

What’s Ahead — and What Brokers Should Watch

Because of the government shutdown, most October inflation and employment data will NOT be released. October and November data will be combined and released in December.

This week’s big highlight:

September Core PCE (Fed’s favorite inflation metric)

It’s backward-looking, but one detail matters:

If the housing/shelter component comes in soft again, the Fed will gain confidence that inflation is easing — further supporting a rate-cut outlook.

Broker Action Points:

• Watch for volatility around Dec. 10
• Prep clients now — don’t wait for rate-cut headlines
• Set expectations: “Rate cuts don’t always mean lower mortgage rates”
• Use this stable-to-improving rate environment to revive your pipeline before holiday slowdown

 

Bottom Line for Brokers

Between a more dovish Federal Reserve, falling oil prices, and rates testing critical support levels, the current market is giving mortgage brokers one of the best environments of the year to:

✔ Re-engage pre-approvals
✔ Re-run investor and DSCR deals
✔ Educate clients about rate timing
✔ Build pipeline momentum into early 2026

This isn’t just a “good week” — it’s a meaningful shift in tone that brokers can use to win more conversations and close more business.