Interest rates are holding near the best levels of 2025, and all eyes are now on the December 10th Fed Meeting — one of the most important events of the year for mortgage brokers.

“Hangin’ tough, stayin’ hungry…”
— Eye of the Tiger, Survivor

Here’s what happened this week and what it means for your borrowers and pipeline.

 

A Quiet Week — Until ADP Changed the Tone

With no major economic reports and no Fed speakers scheduled, the bond market spent most of the week drifting sideways.
This type of calm is usually the setup for a big move, and brokers should be ready for it.

That calm broke when the ADP employment report came in softer than expected, showing weaker private-sector hiring.

Broker takeaway:

A cooling labor market increases the chance that the Fed will cut rates next week.
Market odds are now 90% for a December 10th rate cut.

This doesn’t mean mortgage rates automatically fall — but it does mean volatility is coming, and brokers should be thinking proactively about:

• Refreshing pre-approvals
• Re-checking DSCR and Non-QM scenarios
• Preparing clients for fast-moving rate sheets next week

 

Why a Move in Japan Reached U.S. Mortgage Markets

Japan’s central bank signaled that it may raise rates in December — pushing their 10-year bond yield to the highest level since 2007.

Why you should care:

Higher yields overseas can make foreign investors shift money out of U.S. bonds.
Less demand for U.S. bonds = upward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.

Good news for brokers:

U.S. bonds shook off the volatility, and mortgage-related yields held steady.
In other words:
No damage done to mortgage pricing.

 

Rate Check: Still Stable, Still Strong

30-yr Fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.19%
Down 0.04% from last week and 0.50% lower than this time last year.

10-yr Treasury: 4.09%
Unchanged from last week, slightly below last year.

Why brokers should watch 4.00%

The 10-year Treasury has treated 4.00% like a brick wall for almost two years.
If yields break below 4.00% and stay there → mortgage pricing could improve further.

 

Looking Ahead: A Big Week for Brokers

Next week is shaping up to be the most important rate week of 2025, and the Fed meeting isn’t even the biggest part.

What matters more than the rate cut:

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) — the Fed’s roadmap for:

• Growth
• Inflation
• Unemployment
• AND how many rate cuts Fed members expect in 2026 & beyond

Broker takeaway:

The “dot plot” inside the SEP will likely move markets more than the rate announcement itself.
Fewer cuts expected → rates could bounce
More cuts expected → bonds could rally

Be ready for fast-moving conditions.

 

Treasury Auctions Also in Focus

Treasury auctions hit the market at a time when yields are sitting near 2025 lows.

Why brokers should care:

• Strong demand → validates recent improvements in yields
• Weak demand → temporary bump higher in rates

With the Fed meeting, SEP projections, and Treasury supply all landing in the same week, brokers should expect:

• The quiet trading environment to end
• Market direction to reset
• Rate sheets to move — fast

Bottom Line for Brokers

This “quiet before the Fed” is the pause before a very active week.
Here’s what you should be doing now:

✔ Refresh pre-approval numbers
✔ Re-run Non-QM & DSCR scenarios
✔ Prepare clients for volatility
✔ Communicate proactively — don’t wait for the headlines

The market is holding steady at strong levels, and next week will set the tone for the rest of 2025.