This past week delivered a meaningful development for mortgage brokers: inflation fell to one of its lowest levels in years. While inflation headlines can feel abstract, this shift directly impacts borrower confidence, affordability conversations, and rate expectations.

Let’s break down what happened — and how brokers can use it.

“I feel good, in a special way…”
— Good Day Sunshine, The Beatles

 

Inflation Is Cooling — Why Brokers Should Care

The November CPI report surprised markets to the downside:

• Headline CPI: 2.7% year-over-year
• Core CPI: 2.6% year-over-year

Both came in below expectations and below prior months — a clear sign that price pressures are easing across the economy.

Key areas brokers should note:

• Shelter inflation slowed, which is critical since housing is the largest inflation component
• Travel, recreation, and apparel costs cooled
• Food inflation also moderated

Broker takeaway:

When inflation cools — especially shelter inflation — it removes pressure from the same forces that tend to push mortgage rates and payments higher. That makes borrower conversations easier and supports steadier market conditions.

 

Why This CPI Report Matters More Than the Last Fed Meeting

Just one week earlier, the Fed projected slightly higher inflation ahead, which justified their cautious messaging despite a policy rate cut.
This CPI report directly challenges that outlook.

For brokers, that has two important implications:

1. Rate Expectations Can Reset

If inflation continues to come in below trend, markets may price in more policy flexibility than the Fed’s current projections suggest. That can support improved long-term rate behavior — the rates that matter most to mortgages.

2. Affordability Conversations Get Easier

Cooling inflation helps stabilize everyday expenses, preserving borrower purchasing power. That matters most for:

• First-time buyers
• Payment-sensitive borrowers
• Investors focused on cash flow and long-term planning

In plain terms: when inflation slows, borrowers feel more confident moving forward instead of waiting.

 

Affordability Is Back in the Spotlight

Housing affordability is once again front and center in the national conversation. In a recent primetime address, President Trump emphasized cost-of-living pressures and previewed upcoming housing-focused reforms aimed at reducing rent and mortgage burdens.

While policy details are still forthcoming, the renewed attention reinforces one thing brokers already know:
Housing costs are a top concern for consumers and policymakers alike.

This aligns with earlier efforts in 2025 to reduce regulatory barriers and encourage housing supply — changes that could gradually support buyer and seller activity as we move into 2026.

 

Where Rates Stand Today

30-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac):

• 6.21% (essentially unchanged week-over-week)
• About 0.5% lower than a year ago

10-Year Treasury:

• Holding near 4.12%, down meaningfully from late 2024 levels

Broker takeaway:

Rates are stable, inflation pressure is easing, and the environment is becoming more predictable — a helpful setup for re-engaging borrowers who paused earlier in the year.

 

What Brokers Should Watch Next

With the holiday week ahead, markets will be thinner and more sensitive to headlines. Key items to watch:

• Q3 GDP revision
• Durable Goods Orders
• Consumer Confidence

Also important:

• Holiday trading schedules (shortened sessions can increase volatility)
• Year-end positioning by investors, which can move rates even in quiet weeks

Broker strategy for year-end:

• Reconnect with stalled buyers and investors
• Refresh pre-approvals using current pricing
• Set expectations around holiday volatility
• Stay alert — thin markets can move quickly

 

Bottom Line for Brokers

This CPI report is a meaningful step in the right direction. Cooling inflation — especially shelter inflation — helps reduce pressure on housing costs and supports steadier mortgage market conditions.

For brokers, that means:
✔ More confident borrowers
✔ Better affordability conversations
✔ Fewer macro headwinds
✔ A stronger setup heading into the new year

This isn’t about headlines — it’s about momentum quietly shifting in your favor.