Rates held steady this past week, giving mortgage brokers something they don’t always get: a calmer market with fewer surprises. While traders search for direction, brokers can use this stability to re-engage borrowers, reset expectations, and prep pipelines for what comes next.

“The waiting is the hardest part…”
— Tom Petty

Here’s what mattered this week — and how brokers should think about it.

 

Labor Data: Steady, Not Overheating

ADP private payrolls came in slightly above expectations, and JOLTS job openings showed labor demand holding steady. Together, these reports point to a labor market that’s cooling gradually, not breaking down.

Why this matters for brokers:

• Stable employment supports borrower confidence
• No signs of runaway growth that force tighter policy
• Rates stayed contained instead of reacting negatively

This is the kind of backdrop that keeps deals moving — even if borrowers are still cautious.

 

Services Sector: A Quiet Win for Inflation

The ISM Services report showed continued expansion, but more importantly, the “prices paid” component eased. That’s a key inflation signal the bond market watches closely.

Broker takeaway:

When service-sector costs cool, inflation pressure eases — which helps prevent sudden pricing spikes. It’s a subtle but positive development for mortgage pricing stability.

 

Rates Are Range-Bound — And That’s Not a Bad Thing

The 10-year Treasury remains stuck between 4.00% and 4.20%, and traders are heavily positioned on both sides of that range.

What brokers should know:

• This tug-of-war keeps rates choppy but contained
• No breakout yet — but pressure is building
• Stability helps brokers quote, lock, and structure deals with more confidence

In short: the market is coiling, not collapsing.

 

Fed Debate: Housing Inflation in Focus

Fed Governor Stephen Miran has been vocal this week, arguing that housing inflation is easing faster than expected, especially rent and shelter costs.

He’s pushed for a more aggressive easing path than the Fed’s official forecast — even suggesting up to four cuts over time.

Why brokers should care:

• Housing inflation directly impacts mortgage affordability
• Internal Fed debate means policy isn’t locked in
• Markets may move quickly if this view gains traction

This reinforces why housing data matters just as much as jobs or CPI for mortgage pricing.

 

Oil Prices: Another Inflation Pressure Valve

Energy markets also helped keep rates in check. Potential increases in oil supply (notably from Venezuela) reduce energy-driven inflation pressure.

Lower energy costs help contain broader inflation — which supports long-term rates staying range-bound rather than climbing.

 

Where Rates Stand

30-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac, Jan 8):

• ~6.16%
• Essentially flat week-over-week
• Meaningfully better than a year ago

10-Year Treasury:

• 4.16%
• Flat week-over-week
• Well below early 2025 levels

Broker takeaway:

Rates aren’t trending aggressively — they’re holding steady, which is often the best environment for closing loans.

 

What Brokers Should Watch This Week

This week could provide the catalyst markets are waiting for.

Key reports:

• CPI & PPI (inflation direction)
• Retail Sales (consumer strength)
• Housing data (demand confirmation)
• Empire State & Philly Fed (economic momentum)

Market events:

• Treasury auctions (3-year, 10-year, 30-year)
• Fed speakers for any shift in tone

If inflation data continues to cool, the market may finally break out of its tight range.

 

Broker Strategy Right Now

In a market like this, proactive brokers win:

• Re-engage borrowers who paused “waiting for clarity”
• Re-run scenarios that were tight earlier
• Lean on flexible solutions (DSCR, Bank Statement, Non-QM)
• Educate clients: stability ≠ stagnation

 

Bottom Line for Brokers

Rates aren’t moving sharply — and that’s the point.

Softening inflation signals, steady labor data, and contained yields are creating a more workable environment for brokers. The waiting may be frustrating, but it’s also creating opportunity for those who stay engaged while others sit on the sidelines.

The next data prints could break the range — and brokers who are prepared will benefit first.