This past week delivered another round of encouraging signals for mortgage brokers. Market conditions remain supportive, and more importantly, borrower behavior is starting to confirm it. While the headlines focused on inflation and economic data, the real story for brokers is simple: activity is picking up.

“Don’t stop, thinking about tomorrow…”
— Fleetwood Mac

Let’s break down what matters most for your pipeline.

 

Buyers Are Moving — Not Just Watching

Two of the strongest leading indicators in housing sent a clear message this week:

• MBA mortgage applications jumped 29%
• Pending Home Sales hit their highest level in three years

For brokers, this isn’t abstract data. It tells us buyers are:

• Getting pre-approved
• Writing offers
• Preparing to transact

Momentum is building beneath the surface — often before it becomes obvious in closed-loan data. This is typically when proactive brokers win market share.

 

Inflation Is Cooperating — Helping Confidence and Affordability

Inflation data continued to trend in the right direction:

• Core CPI: 2.6% year-over-year, below expectations
• PPI: Contained at the wholesale level

Why this matters to brokers:

• Slower price growth supports borrower confidence
• Reduced inflation pressure helps keep long-term rates contained
• Easier affordability conversations with payment-sensitive buyers

This is the type of inflation backdrop that allows housing activity to grow without forcing the Fed into restrictive moves.

 

Growth Without Inflation Is the Sweet Spot

The economy isn’t rolling over — and that’s a good thing.

Retail Sales came in well above expectations, and real (inflation-adjusted) spending also increased. Consumers are still spending, but inflation isn’t accelerating alongside it.

For brokers, this combination matters because:

• Stable employment and spending support housing demand
• Growth without inflation pressure keeps markets balanced
• Fewer macro shocks disrupting deals mid-process

This is the environment where transactions become more predictable.

 

Rates Remain Capped — Supporting Deal Flow

The 10-year Treasury pulled back from the top of its recent range, easing away from the 4.20% level. That move helped stabilize mortgage pricing and reinforced the idea that long-term rates remain capped unless inflation reaccelerates.

For brokers, rate stability often matters more than direction. It allows:

• Cleaner borrower expectations
• Fewer re-quotes and lock confusion
• Better timing for re-engaging stalled scenarios

 

A Potential Boost for Mortgage Liquidity

One important development brokers should be aware of:
The Administration has called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

Why this matters:

• Increased MBS demand improves market liquidity
• Better liquidity helps narrow the spread between Treasuries and mortgage rates
• Narrower spreads mean mortgage pricing can better reflect broader market conditions

That spread has already improved significantly since 2023, and additional support could further enhance pricing efficiency.

 

Where We Are Today

30-Year Fixed (Bankrate, Jan 14):

• ~6.14%
• Slightly improved week-over-week
• Significantly better than early 2025

10-Year Treasury:

• 4.14%
• Down from last week
• Well below year-ago levels

Broker takeaway:
Pricing remains stable, predictable, and workable — a solid foundation for growing pipeline activity.

 

What Brokers Should Watch Next

Next week’s data could influence the next leg of market movement:

• Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
• Final Q3 GDP reading
• Fed blackout period begins (markets rely more heavily on data)

With Fed officials silent, incoming reports carry more weight — especially inflation data. Continued cooling would reinforce expectations for easing later in the year and support borrower confidence.

 

Broker Strategy Right Now

This is a market that rewards action:

• Reconnect with buyers who paused
• Re-run pre-approvals and scenarios
• Engage investors and self-employed borrowers early
• Use flexible solutions (DSCR, Bank Statement, Non-QM) to capture momentum

 

Bottom Line for Brokers

The data is lining up with what many brokers are already feeling: momentum is building.

Buyers are re-engaging, inflation pressure is easing, and rate volatility remains contained. This isn’t a market to wait on — it’s one to lean into with confidence and preparation.

The early part of the year is setting the tone. Brokers who engage now will be best positioned as activity continues to build.